From Maine marketing campaign to China’s claims, numbers lie
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Gordon L. Weil previously wrote for the Washington Publish and different newspapers, served on the U.S. Senate and EU staffs, headed Maine state businesses and was a Harpswell selectman.
People have an nearly spiritual religion in numbers. When individuals imagine in statistics, that helps politicians.
Folks maintain their religion regardless of the reality of that previous saying, “Figures don’t lie, however liars determine.”
Nowhere is that extra correct than in political campaigns. It’s evident now each in Maine and on the nationwide and world scene.
Within the marketing campaign waged by for-profit Central Maine Energy and Versant in opposition to the proposed nonprofit Pine Tree Energy, the 2 present firms say that it may take $13.5 billion to compensate them for promoting their property. That sounds daunting sufficient to overwhelm some other points.
The easy reply is that the precise value can’t now be identified. As in just about all instances of this sort, the 2 sides don’t agree on a worth and a court docket decides. The PTP proposal even acknowledges {that a} Maine court docket will resolve.
Past that, the inflated quantity outcomes from one of many primary the reason why plenty of numbers and polls are a lot much less dependable than they could appear. They’re based mostly on the assumptions used. For instance, the 2 utilities paid for the research that yields the excessive quantity, so it’s expectable that its assumptions would assist them.
As well as, there’s a latest utility acquisition in Maine that might affect a court docket. In 2020, Versant purchased its utility, which serves the Bangor space, from Emera. It paid the audited worth of the property plus a premium of about 21 p.c. If that very same method had been used within the PTP takeover, the price could be lower than $7.5 billion.
Lastly, the shoppers of these two utilities now pay for his or her poles and wires and they might proceed to be accountable. They’re now paying off about $5.4 billion, so that may not be a brand new value. Someplace within the heated and expensive marketing campaign, these details, undermining the $13.5 billion declare, get misplaced.
The numbers within the presidential match-up between Joe Biden and Donald Trump are simply as doubtful. The typical of main nationwide polls has them nearly even. The media pushes the story of a useless warmth between the 2 in search of one other 4 years within the White Home.
There are plenty of issues with this conclusion, even when it appears to be based mostly on the ballot numbers. The obvious is the failure to take account of the 11 p.c who didn’t decide both candidate. The place will they go or will they keep house? What in regards to the individuals who refused to reply? They’re actually sufficient to swing a nationwide election.
These numbers may need some small curiosity if there have been a nationwide presidential election determined by the favored vote. However there isn’t. There are 51 separate elections (the states and Washington, D.C.). To have a greater view of who’s main would require figuring out in regards to the presidential race in every state. However polls merely don’t but exist for a lot of states.
Timing additionally issues so much. The polls, restricted as they’re, had been performed 14 months earlier than the elections. The candidates haven’t but been chosen and marketing campaign developments can have an effect on the ultimate consequence. Court docket instances and potential third-party members will have an effect on the outcomes simply as will the scale of the turnout.
Briefly, the numbers that supposedly inform individuals of the seemingly consequence of a presidential election provide little helpful steering. They might even be biased by the best way questions are requested or the voters select to reply. Voter beware.
Finagling the numbers doesn’t cease on the border. China desires to point out the world that the Communist Occasion’s model of economics is superior to the U.S. free enterprise system. That’s a key a part of its effort to draw the creating nations, turning the southern hemisphere into China’s sphere of affect.
In keeping with its numbers, its financial progress appeared unbelievably good. However don’t imagine China’s financial knowledge, as a result of they’ve been mendacity. When it grew to become clear that its economic system didn’t match its claims, the director of the Nationwide Statistics Bureau there admitted that, “fraud and deception occur every so often, in violation of statistics legal guidelines and laws.”
Quantity crunchers have been recalculating when China may go the U.S. because the world’s largest economic system. Due to its enormous inhabitants and proclaimed progress, it appeared prefer it may occur this decade. In reality, it might by no means occur.
The explanations are each its slower financial progress and a declining inhabitants attributable to limiting household sizes plus an ageing inhabitants. Lies in regards to the measurement of the Chinese language inhabitants at the moment are being revealed.
The message? Be skeptical of different individuals’s numbers. The actual impact on you of electrical charges or presidential elections or the rivalry with China matter greater than the usually phony numbers designed to impress or confuse you. Quantity One continues to be a very powerful quantity.
